A summer recession looms over the US economy as tariffs imposed by the Trump administration take effect, according to Apollo Global Management’s chief economist Torsten Slok. In a presentation for clients, Slok outlined a timeline showing when the impact of these tariffs could hit the economy.
The timeline predicts that US consumers will start noticing trade-related shortages in their local stores next month, with empty shelves expected within a few weeks. The shortage is attributed to slowing container ship departures from China and ultimately leading to trucking demand coming to a halt.
Layoffs in the trucking and retail industries are anticipated for late May to early June, while a recession is predicted for summer 2025. This prediction is supported by sharply falling new orders, earnings outlooks, and capital spending plans in recent weeks.
The US economy relies heavily on Chinese goods, with $438.9 billion worth of imports from China in 2024. However, some experts argue that the impact may be less severe than predicted due to a “pull-forward” effect where orders were made before the tariffs were announced.
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/28/empty-shelves-trucking-layoffs-lead-to-recession-in-apollos-trade-war-timeline.html