The Trump administration’s tariffs and rhetoric are expected to further decline international travel to the US, with Tourism Economics forecasting a 9.4% drop in foreign visitors this year. This is nearly twice the initial forecast of a 5% decline made at the end of February.
Initially, Tourism Economics predicted a strong start for international travel to the US, with an expected 9% increase from 2024. However, recent high-profile border incidents and tariffs have deterred potential visitors. The company’s president, Adam Sacks, attributed this to the administration’s policy developments and rhetorical attacks.
“This has a direct impact on international travel to the US,” Sacks said. “With each policy development, we’re seeing unforced error after unforced error.”
The decline in international travel will have significant consequences for airlines, hotels, national parks, and other tourist sites. Tourism Economics expects travel from Canada to plummet 20%, affecting border states like New York and Michigan as well as popular destinations like California, Nevada, and Florida.
A 10% reduction in Canadian travel could result in 2 million fewer visits, $2.1 billion in lost spending, and 14,000 job losses. Air Canada’s recent booking numbers showed a 10% decline for the April-September period compared to the same period last year.
Sacks also noted that foreign visitors are expected to spend $9 billion less in the US this year than initially predicted. He attributed this to the tariffs being placed to address the trade deficit but harming the trade balance by discouraging international travelers from visiting and spending money in the country.
Source: https://time.com/7273576/tourism-economics-travel-us-visitors-forecast-drop-trump-foreign-policy