The United States is expected to see a minimal increase in life expectancy over the next few decades, according to researchers at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). The forecasted increase from 78.3 years in 2022 to 80.4 years in 2050 highlights an “alarming trajectory of health challenges” facing the country.
A comparison with over 200 other countries shows that the US will lag behind most high-income nations and some middle-income nations in life expectancy gains. The country is expected to fall to 66th out of 204 countries in 2050, down from 49th in 2022.
Life expectancy among women in the US is predicted to improve less than men’s, shrinking the gap by gender. However, addressing key risk factors such as obesity, smoking, and drug use disorders could lead to significant improvements, with a predicted half-year increase in life expectancy.
The rise in obesity rates, which are forecasted to affect over 260 million people by 2050, signals a public health crisis of immense scale. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report that drug overdose deaths have started to decline, but the levels remain high and will likely increase over the next few decades.
Eliminating risk factors in three key areas – environment, behavioral, and metabolic risks, and childhood nutrition and vaccination – could lead to approximately 550,000 fewer deaths in 2050, bringing life expectancy up by nearly four years. The IHME researchers emphasize that immediate action is necessary to slow down the decline in future health outcomes.
Source: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/05/health/ihme-life-expectancy-forecasts-stall-by-2050/index.html