The US prison population is on track to decline by 60% over the next decade, marking a significant shift in the nation’s approach to incarceration. After peaking at 1.6 million Americans in 2009, the population has been steadily decreasing since 2023, with an estimated 600,000 inmates expected to be behind bars by 2035.
A key factor contributing to this decline is recidivism – the re-arresting of former inmates after release. Studies have shown that most individuals who end up in prison begin their criminal careers in their teens or young adulthood. In fact, as of 2016, the average man in state prison had been arrested nine times and was currently serving his sixth sentence.
Additionally, long sentences are no longer a dominant factor driving population growth. Historically, prisons were filled with individuals serving extended sentences, but this trend is reversing. Prisons are now emptying out as prisoners complete their terms or are released early. This shift suggests that the US may finally be taking steps towards reducing its notorious mass incarceration problem.
Source: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/06/prisoner-populations-are-plummeting/683310