US President Donald Trump’s administration has frozen nearly all foreign aid and moved to effectively abolish the US Agency for International Development (USAID) in Southeast Asia, creating a void that China may be eager to fill. USAID spent $860m in the region last year, funding projects on HIV treatment, biodiversity preservation, and local governance.
Analysts say Beijing sees an opportunity to expand its influence in the region where it has invested billions of dollars. China’s embassies have stepped in with aid, such as a $4.4m project to clear landmines in Cambodia left by Washington.
Joshua Kurlantzick, a senior fellow for Southeast Asia and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, warns that US influence is waning in the region, making it easier for China to portray itself as a reliable partner. “Beijing is already portraying the US as uncaring and unable to lead regionally or globally,” he said.
However, some analysts believe China may leave projects with ideological focus to other partners, such as the European Union, Australia, Japan, or the Asian Development Project. John Gong, a professor of economics at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, is skeptical about China stepping into the US aid void.
China’s foreign assistance has been heavily geared towards infrastructure, its flagship Belt and Road Initiative estimated to be worth $1 trillion. While critics have referred to these projects as “debt-trap” diplomacy, 59.5% of respondents across 10 Southeast Asian countries chose China as the most influential economic power in the region.
Despite this, China faces domestic problems that could limit its focus on international affairs, including slowing economic growth and high youth unemployment. Steve Balla, an associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, notes that these issues may serve to limit Chinese President Xi Jinping’s attention to international affairs.
In summary, the US retreat from Southeast Asia has created a soft power vacuum that China is eager to fill. However, China’s own domestic problems and concerns about its Belt and Road Initiative may temper its ambition to expand its influence in the region.
Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/2/13/for-china-usaids-demise-could-be-a-soft-power-win-in-southeast-asia