The U.S. government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has long been the gold standard for measuring the American economy’s health, but recent events have cast doubt on this trust. The BLS’s top official was recently dismissed, and jobs data showed moderate growth initially, only to be revised downward. This has led many Americans to wonder: If official government data can’t be trusted, how can you know if the economy is struggling?
While collecting economic data is imperfect and daunting, especially in a fast-moving economy like the U.S., alternative indicators offer insight into economic trouble. Economists point to five key areas to watch:
1. Labor Market Conditions
– Visible unemployed people: Longer lines at job centers, fewer “help wanted” signs, and rising layoffs.
– Wage stagnation: Lack of raises or reduced hiring bonuses and perks.
– Surge in part-time or gig work.
2. Consumer Behavior and Social Signals
– Reduced spending: Fewer restaurant visits, mall traffic decline, and increased coupon clipping.
– Rising defaults: More “for sale” signs, evictions, and bankruptcies reported by courts and real estate boards.
– Charity demand: Higher food bank and shelter usage.
3. Business Activity
– Layoff announcements: Early warnings from corporate press releases, layoff tracker websites, and industry newsletters.
– Inventory and discounting: Retailers offering deeper discounts or holding clearance sales due to excess unsold goods.
– Small-business closures: More empty storefronts, business liquidations, or community announcements.
4. Alternative and Composite Data
– ADP private payroll data provides independent snapshots of employment trends.
– Human Development Index (HDI) and Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) offer broader measures of economic well-being.
– Well-being indexes and social metrics capture public sentiment and living standards.
5. Public Mood and Media Reporting
– Dominant headlines about job losses, business failures, or personal financial hardship signal real underlying distress.
While it’s understandable to be skeptical of government data, experts advise paying attention to local businesses, listening to stories from regular people, and tracking private sector movement. The telltale signs of economic trouble are often visible in empty storefronts, rising bankruptcies, and community distress.
Source: https://fortune.com/2025/08/18/economy-recession-indicators-telltale-signs-government-data-bls