The US economy is facing uncertainty, with two key metrics often getting attention: retail sales and payroll data. But which one provides a more accurate picture of the economic health? Retail sales are expected to rise due to low unemployment rates and consumer spending.
However, some experts argue that payroll data is a better indicator of the economy’s performance. Payrolls show employment numbers, wages, and inflation expectations. The latest jobless claims data suggests a strong labor market with steady wage growth.
The Federal Reserve has been closely monitoring both metrics, using them to inform interest rate decisions. With retail sales up and unemployment low, some economists expect continued economic expansion. But the payroll numbers indicate a more nuanced picture, suggesting that the economy is holding its own despite rising inflation concerns.
Source: https://www.ft.com/content/ea522dd4-415b-403c-8a74-1a8f8c736898