The Trump administration’s final order on copper tariffs has sparked shock and confusion among traders, with the US market experiencing a massive price drop. The 50% duty on semi-finished products such as pipes, rods, and wires will have little impact on raw input materials like copper cathode, concentrates, or scraps.
However, analysts warn that the tariffs may still lead to higher prices for consumer goods containing copper, including cookware, air conditioning units, and plumbing parts. The initial July announcement of a 50% tariff had already led to record-high US copper prices, which have now plummeted by 19% in a single day.
Despite the downward pressure on US prices, analysts predict that the impact will be felt globally due to the massive build-up of refined inventories in the US. This could lead to high shipments back into the global market, putting upward pressure on LME prices.
Industry experts, including Duncan Wanblad of Anglo American and Russell Bukowski of Mastercam, stress that the copper tariffs will have a long-term impact on manufacturers and consumers. While the initial price drop may be significant, it is expected to lead to higher production costs and eventually, higher prices for goods containing copper.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank note that the copper supply-demand balance remains unchanged, but the tariff could put pressure on COMEX prices. The impact on consumer prices will be nuanced, with the housing/construction sector being most affected due to its significant use of copper inputs.
In summary, while the Trump administration’s reversal of copper tariffs may have alleviated some pressure on US market prices, it is unlikely to avoid the broader consequences of higher production costs and eventual price increases for consumer goods containing copper.
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/31/why-us-copper-tariff-exemption-wont-fully-ease-price-rises.html