A recent study published in Nature has shed new light on the Yellowstone supervolcano’s subsurface magma dynamics, providing a more accurate understanding of its potential risks. Researchers employed electromagnetic imaging techniques to map the three-dimensional distribution of partially molten zones beneath the caldera, revealing that the magmatic system is heterogeneous and spatially isolated.
The study indicates that most of the magma resides in the northeast section of the caldera, where 400-500 km³ of rhyolitic magma is concentrated. This amount exceeds the output of the Mesa Falls eruption (1.3 million years ago). The heat source beneath this magma is basaltic intrusion from the mantle, which continues to thermally sustain and gradually enlarge these melt zones.
Climatologist Markus Stoffel estimates a 16% probability of a VEI 7 or higher eruption occurring globally before 2100. This probability is informed by stochastic modeling of volcanic systems, global eruptive frequency data, and observed increases in subcrustal magmatism across multiple volcanic zones.
A Yellowstone super-eruption would likely follow a multi-phase eruption cycle, with smaller precursory eruptions potentially preceding the main event. The eruption would intensify rapidly, generating plinian-style ash columns that could travel over 300 km/h and devastate areas within a 100 km radius.
The primary global hazard of a super-eruption is not mechanical destruction, but stratospheric aerosol loading and radiative forcing. This could lead to a 4°C drop in global mean surface temperature, with significant impacts on agriculture, climate, infrastructure, and human security.
To prepare for such an event, international coordination, scientific transparency, and sustained investment in resilient infrastructure and adaptive agriculture are crucial. The cost of inaction could exceed the threshold of recoverability due to the non-linear nature of geophysical systems and the globalized interconnectedness of modern society.
Source: https://dailygalaxy.com/2025/08/a-giant-destructive-volcanic-eruption-is-set-to-shake-the-world-in-the-coming-months-bringing-about-the-end-of-mankind-scientists-warn